Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-07-20 2.324999 2.473220 2.630343 2.810041 3.010788 3.229228 3.486371
2025-07-27 2.140669 2.348842 2.581373 2.863102 3.199024 3.591816 4.093725
2025-08-03 1.987083 2.224475 2.498936 2.844826 3.276816 3.809749 4.536128
2025-08-10 1.870655 2.126233 2.429645 2.824089 3.335644 3.995887 4.948456
2025-08-17 1.770777 2.037095 2.360018 2.790618 3.366966 4.140394 5.314694
2025-08-24 1.686247 1.959464 2.296713 2.756304 3.388683 4.267548 5.666880
2025-08-31 1.628383 1.910554 2.264904 2.758215 3.456007 4.461250 6.144688
2025-09-07 1.583731 1.875075 2.246953 2.775394 3.543391 4.690440 6.715168
2025-09-14 1.521040 1.812556 2.189042 2.732088 3.537304 4.773291 7.046836
2025-09-21 1.463192 1.753492 2.132273 2.685904 3.521710 4.837087 7.352166
2025-09-28 1.407817 1.695237 2.073556 2.632837 3.490493 4.870410 7.603291
2025-10-05 1.390094 1.686339 2.081610 2.676478 3.611722 5.171447 8.448171
2025-10-12 1.373123 1.678206 2.090909 2.723482 3.744203 5.513147 9.482913
2025-10-19 1.357275 1.670786 2.100580 2.771299 3.882077 5.884562 10.709524
2025-10-26 1.322956 1.636236 2.069507 2.753810 3.907218 6.044203 11.464920
2025-11-02 1.290311 1.602765 2.038404 2.734138 3.926343 6.193679 12.245363
2025-11-09 1.256301 1.566169 2.001147 2.702390 3.921126 6.292166 12.916994
2025-11-16 1.224067 1.531045 1.964667 2.669831 3.911650 6.380186 13.593240
2025-11-23 1.202953 1.511093 1.949896 2.671644 3.964996 6.611437 14.842455
2025-11-30 1.186799 1.497676 1.944260 2.687946 4.046418 6.918051 16.531724
2025-12-07 1.156808 1.463297 1.905573 2.646845 4.014638 6.956770 17.218678
2025-12-14 1.127534 1.429222 1.866291 2.602988 3.974507 6.970902 17.822849
2025-12-21 1.097918 1.393951 1.824167 2.552564 3.918286 6.939554 18.225832